Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
